The Road to Glory – 2014 World Cup predictions

On the eve of the World Cup, here is how I think this summer’s tournament will pan out.

Group stage

Group A

Brazil top the group easily with comfortable wins over Mexico and Cameroon having come through a tight opening match with Croatia where nerves and the crowd’s expectations almost get the better of them.  It’s plain sailing from that point onwards though and they finish in a flourish against Cameroon.  Croatia are the victors in a winner-take-all clash with Mexico in the final game of the group which sees them join Brazil in the last 16. Mexico finish with just 3 points from a win over Cameroon to show for their efforts whilst the African side finish bottom of the group with no points.

Group B

 

Much like Brazil, defending champions Spain breeze through their group with not even Holland, 2010 beaten finalists, doing enough to stop them from claiming maximum points.  Along the way they crush a weak Australia side. The crucial final match in the group sees Holland and Chile go head to head for a place in the next round after both sides suffer defeat to a confident Spain. Although Chile give their all, a competitive draw is enough to see Holland through on goal difference by virtue of having beaten whipping boys Australia by a greater margin.  The team from down under head home having made no impact on the group and fail to claim a single point.

Group C

The Ivory Coast, spurred on by star man Yaya Touré, provide the first big shock of the tournament by beating Colombia to top spot in the group. Wins against Japan and Greece sandwich a draw with the South American side who have enough to go through in second place despite being disadvantaged by the absence of striker Radamel Falcao. Crucially they secure a draw with Japan in their final group game and the result also sees the Asian side avoid the wooden spoon.  This unwanted accolade goes to Greece who fail to cope with the physical challenges they face against Colombia and the Ivory Coast and finish with just a single point earned in a draw with Japan.

Group D

 

The so-called ‘Group of Death’ proves fatal to Italy who become the first big casualty of the tournament.  Uruguay’s attacking fire power helps them take top spot in the group as they draw with Italy but claim a crucial win over England in their second game.  Having beaten Italy in their first match, England recover from that loss to Uruguay to easily dispatch Costa Rica and seal their place in the last 16. Italy pay the price for their lack of pace at the back with England’s offensive mobility allowing them to claim three points and although they still have a chance of going through ahead of the final round of games, they are unable to force a winner against group winners Uruguay and exit the tournament early.  Costa Rica lose all three games to finish bottom.

Group E

Group E lives up to expectations as Ecuador, Switzerland and Honduras compete for second place behind an in form France side who make easy progress due to the goals of striker Karim Benzema. In the end, Ecuador make their experience of the playing conditions tell and just pip a much-fancied Switzerland side to a place in the next round. Following a draw between the sides in the opening match of the group, Ecuador overcome Honduras whilst Switzerland lose to neighbours France but it’s all to play for going into the final games. Despite Ecuador’s defeat at the hands of France leaving the door open, Switzerland can’t quite secure the big win they need over Honduras (who finish bottom) to overcome a goal difference deficit and so Ecuador claim second place in the group.

Group F

Argentina’s incredible array of attacking options sees them easily through to the last 16 with a tight opening win over Bosnia being followed by the destruction of vastly inferior Nigeria and Iran sides. The key game of the group comes in the second round of games as Bosnia’s players make good use of their experience in top European leagues to overcome Nigeria and leave themselves needing a win over Iran in their final game to seal their place in the next round. They manage this without any trouble although Nigeria’s heavy loss to Argentina makes their result irrelevant to the final group positions.  Iran finish bottom having scored just one goal and conceded heavily in all three of their matches.

Group G

 

After overcoming the toughest test in their opener against Portugal, it’s plain sailing for Germany and they claim maximum points on their way to top spot in the group. Portugal recover from that early setback and also beat USA and Ghana to seal second place. Despite getting off to a good start with a win over Ghana, the lack of experienced players in the USA side shows and they lose any chance of progressing when they are beaten by Germany in what is seen as a grudge match for Jurgen Klinsmann, German coach of the American team. Ghana can’t repeat their success of four years ago and exit the tournament with no points and without really putting up much of a fight.

Group H

 

The tightest of all the groups sees three sides still in with a mathematical chance of progressing as the final group games get underway. Earlier on, Belgium and Russia both claim wins in their opening matches and a draw between the sides see them level pegging ahead of the decisive round of fixtures.  South Korea also have a chance following their win over Algeria, who are already out after losses in their first two matches.  Belgium only need a draw to progress but they go one better and secure a win over South Korea, which in turn sees the Asian side eliminated and makes Russia’s result irrelevant.  They are held to a draw with Algeria (who earn their first and only point in the group) and qualify for the last 16 in second place behind Belgium.

 

Round of 16

Brazil vs Holland                                             Ivory Coast vs England

France vs Bosnia                                             Germany vs Russia

Spain vs Croatia                                              Uruguay vs Colombia

Argentina vs Ecuador                                     Belgium vs Portugal

An increasingly confident Brazil, roared on by a home crowd, overcome a Holland side who fail to reach the heights of 2010 and exit prematurely .

England manage to stifle the influence of Yaya Touré and the other Ivory Coast players don’t have the quality to combat the enthusiasm of their opponent’s young stars.

Free-scoring France have no trouble penetrating the questionable Bosnia defence in what is the least competitive match of the last 16 stage.

Germany make good use of their superior tournament experience to dismiss a Russia side who lack the superstars needed to progress further.

The battle of midfield stars goes to Spain as the defending champions shackle the La Liga-based Croatia axis of Modric and Rakitic and are beginning to grow in confidence.

Uruguay come out on top in this clash of South American sides as Luis Suarez stars against a Colombia side who in contrast are missing their star striker Radamel Falcao.

Argentina eventually come through a surprisingly tough battle with continental rivals Ecuador who, despite being more comfortable with the conditions, can’t match their rivals strength in depth and fall after extra-time.

A young Belgium side, featuring several Premier League stars, shock Portugal who struggle in extra-time as World Player of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo shows signs of tiredness following a demanding season at club level.

Quarter-finals

Brazil vs England                                             France vs Germany

Spain vs Uruguay                                            Argentina vs Belgium

Brazil ride the increasing wave of belief which has swept up their supporters and beat England to claim a place in the semi-finals.  Neymar finally starts to grow into the tournament and is crucial as his side ensure England exit at the quarter-final stage yet again.

A disciplined Germany side halt France in their tracks. Although far from spectacular, they manage to efficiently shackle in-form French striker Karim Benzema as their opponents begin to feel the absence of the injured Franck Ribery.

Uruguay pull off the biggest shock of the tournament so far as they knock out holders Spain. Their aggressive tackling and energetic pressing prevents Spain from getting a foothold in the match and although they can’t quite finish the job in extra-time, they progress on penalties. 

Argentina have a much easier task than in the last 16 as they overcome an inexperienced Belgium team to make it three South American teams in the semi-finals.  Both teams seem tired from their previous match but Argentina progress whilst Belgium head home with their heads held high after a good showing.

Semi-finals

Brazil vs Germany                                           Uruguay vs Argentina

Brazil reach the final of their home World Cup as Neymar scores a late goal to knock out Germany, who finally wilt in the heat giving their opponent’s creative players the chance to shine. They battle hard but with increasing space available for Brazil, they eventually pick the German defence apart and now have the chance of glory on home soil.

Argentina are the victors in a predictably competitive South American clash as Uruguay finally pay the price for their overreliance on attacking stars Suarez and Cavani. As in previous games it is Argentina’s options on the bench which make a difference and they give their side the added boost they need to claim victory in extra-time.

Final

Brazil vs Argentina

Argentina steal glory from under the noses of their perennial rivals Brazil, who relive the nightmare of the Maracanazo against Uruguay in 1950. Neymar is almost anonymous in the final as the weight of a whole nation’s expectations crush him allowing Barcelona team-mate Lionel Messi to take the glory in the final with a brace. Messi finally emerges from the shadow of Diego Maradona and can now legitimately be talked about as one of the greatest players the game has ever seen.

Argentina crowned 2014 FIFA World Cup champions

(Argentina striker Sergio Aguero claims the golden boot award as top scorer in the tournament with 7 goals. He gets off to a good start with 4 strikes in the group stage but his 3 goals in the knock-out stages are crucial to Argentina’s success.)

Making an impact – the transfers that changed the season

With the curtain coming down on one of the most exciting Premier League seasons in recent memory, I decided to take a look at the players who made an important impact having only arrived on British shores in the last 12 months. I based my decisions on a few key criteria including: value for money, goals and assists, overall impact as well as how positive the move was for the players themselves.

Adam’s special transfer scale

How it works: the transfer scale shows whether each player’s transfer was better for them as an individual or for the club who signed them.  For example, a player who stepped up and thrived at a top club would find himself further into the red half of the scale. On the other hand, if a big money signing scored the goals that helped keep their new club in the division then this transfer would fall into the green half of the scale. 

So without any further ado, here are my top 10 transfers of the 2013/2014 Premier League season.

Wilfried Bony – Swansea City

When Swansea paid £12 million to Vitesse Arnhem for a 24-year-old striker who had just scored 31 goals in the Eredivisie it was a big risk.   For every Ruud van Nistelrooy that has starred in the Premier League there’s a Mateja Kezman who has come and gone without making any impact whatsoever.  10 months on and 16 league goals later Wilfried Bony falls undoubtedly into the former category.  His physical strength stood him in good stead when faced with some of the Premier League’s best, a fact backed up by goals against Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City.  He also stepped up and performed for the long spells when last season’s star Michu was missing through injury.  Whilst the likes of Norwich and Fulham bit the dust due to their lack of goals, Swansea had a frequent scorer in Bony which greatly contributed to them retaining their Premier League status.  The move has also proved beneficial to the man himself.  He proved he can do the business in a big league after a successful spell in Holland and has been rewarded with a place in the Ivory Coast squad for the World Cup.  With star man Didier Drogba likely to retire from international duty after this summer’s tournament, there is surely now a chance for Bony to stake his claim to lead the line for Les Éléphants for years to come.

 

Gareth Barry – Everton

When Everton announced that they had agreed to sign Gareth Barry on a season-long loan from Manchester City, I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who chuckled a little.  I have no trouble now in admitting that I was wrong.  The former Villa midfielder has been one of the stars of Everton’s season and his calming influence in midfield has been vital to Roberto Martinez’ attractive style of football.  Barry helps the play tick over as his side try to dominate possession and create chances through patient build-up play. The 32 league appearances he made this season is considerably more than he would have made at Manchester City had he remained there and by accepting a slight step down in terms of league position he has ensured his career will not stagnate as has been the case with those players content to sit on the bench at the Etihad Stadium.  He has now passed the milestone of 500 Premier League appearances and his experience has clearly rubbed off on young midfield partner James McCarthy who has gone from strength to strength under the wing of the former England international.  Everton only just missed out on fourth place and with them looking to push on to another level next season they will surely be looking to hold on to him. Barry seems to be really enjoying his football again and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turning out at Goodison Park again come August.

 

 

 Tom Huddlestone – Hull City

The last 3 years of Tom Huddlestone’s eight-year stay at Tottenham were far from idyllic with the midfield playmaker making just 36 league appearances during that time.  Still by my money one of the best passers of the ball England has, Hull was the destination he chose to get his career back on track and they paid a modest fee of £5.25 million for him.  Since then he has been an absolute revelation, spraying the ball about the park and dictating his new side’s play with consummate ease.  He featured in 36 of Hull’s 38 league encounters, the most league appearances he has made in the last 10 seasons, and it is now difficult to see how they could possibly cope without his influence and ability on the ball.  As well as being his side’s set piece master he has chipped in with 3 league goals (which came as a great relief to hairdressers around the country) and this is an area in which he has expressed a desire to further improve.  His ball-striking ability suggests there is more to come in that department.  Such was his form this season that he was several experts’ outside pick to make England’s World Cup squad.  He may not have received that particular call but at just 27 and with his best years ahead of him, his move to Hull may prove to be the catalyst to international recognition in the future.  

 

Álvaro Negredo – Manchester City

As we have seen in the past, shelling out a massive transfer fee for a proven goal scorer from overseas does not always come off (just ask Roberto Soldado or any Spurs fan.)  With a strikingly similar record in Spain to the aforementioned Soldado, Álvaro Negredo arrived at Manchester City for a fee which could rise to £20 million having scored 85 goals in 182 matches for Sevilla over the past four seasons.  That was when their careers went in distinctly different directions.  Like Wilfried Bony, Negredo’s strength and power made him well-suited to the hustle and bustle of the Premier League and although he only bagged 9 league goals his record of 23 in 48 games overall was impressive. He linked up well with old Sevilla pal Jésus Navas whilst providing the perfect foil for fellow striking superstar Sergio Aguero.  In the early part of the season they formed a classic ‘little and large’ partnership with Negredo occupying opposition centre-halves allowing the diminutive Argentine space to work his magic. City fans will be looking forward to them further developing their understanding in the coming years. Injuries plagued the second half of his season (he failed to score after January) but he still ended it with his first league winner’s medal and, injury-permitting, he will compete with Diego Costa to lead the line for Spain in this summer’s World Cup. Money well spent by Manchester City.

 

Jonjo Shelvey  - Swansea City

As a Liverpool fan I felt mixed emotions when the club accepted a £5 million bid from Swansea for young midfield prospect Jonjo Shelvey.  Anointed by some as the natural heir to Steven Gerrard’s number 8 shirt, the former Charlton man struggled to find the consistency needed to succeed at the top level. His move to Wales has been the perfect tonic for him.  Throughout this season he has played the consistent first-team football that he needs to fully realise his ability and build on the promising flashes which he has shown in his young career to this point.  His wonder goal against Aston Villa towards the end of the season should be evidence enough that, with the right guidance and opportunity, Shelvey has the necessary technical ability to be a frequent member of the England squad in the future.  6 goals in 31 league games was his joint season-high and whilst he is still prone to the odd lapse in concentration or misplaced ‘Hollywood’ pass, he has thrived on the added responsibility placed on him at the heart of the Swansea midfield.   Unlike other young players with huge potential (Jack Rodwell and Scott Sinclair spring to mind), Shelvey took the bold step of leaving a huge club in order to further his career, effectively taking a step back in order to take two forward. If he continues to progress at this rate, it won’t be long before the big clubs come knocking again.

 

Nikica Jelavic/Shane Long – Hull City

It was just too difficult to separate these two strikers who, after signing for Hull in the January transfer window, scored the goals which helped keep the Tigers in the top flight.  Jelavic arrived for around £6.5 million from Everton whilst the club shelled out £7 million to prise Ireland international Long from West Brom.  Whilst 4 goals each might not sound like a lot, those strikes were vital in preventing Hull from sliding into the bottom three at a time when the club seemed to be treading water.  Whilst Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff failed in their attempts to recruit a goalscorer, Hull bagged two in the same month and their combined contribution helped keep the club in the division.  Their ineligibility for the FA Cup hasn’t prevented Hull reaching the final and the fact they could focus purely on their league form contributed to their good performances.  Their good link-up play was evident from day one and it became a key feature of Hull’s play as the season went on.  It must be encouraging for midfielders to know that any chances they create will be taken by one of these two poachers. For Jelavic in particular the move to Hull has been very beneficial. With former club Everton preferring Lukaku up front, he needed first-team football in order to keep his place in Croatia’s World Cup squad and in this regard it was mission accomplished as he will be on the place to Brazil.

  

Jason Puncheon – Crystal Palace

For many football fans, Jason Puncheon’s most memorable moment of the season was his awful penalty miss against Tottenham.  Perhaps by the time the ball eventually comes back down to earth he may even be able to laugh about it himself.  That one incident shouldn’t blot his copy book though as the winger performed consistently well to help Crystal Palace surprise everyone by thriving in the Premier League. Starting the season on loan at Selhurst Park from Southampton, his early season form convinced the Eagles to pay £1.75 million to bring him on board permanently.  He finished the season with 7 goals in just 34 league matches which makes his small transfer fee look like an absolute bargain when compared to what other Premier League clubs spent on disappointing wingers this season (think Erik Lamela at Tottenham or Chelsea’s Mohamed Salah.)  Puncheon was Palace’s most consistent creative influence and following his permanent move in January he scored important goals against Norwich, Stoke and Hull to help lift his side comfortably clear of the relegation zone.  He followed this up with 4 goals in 3 games in April, playing a crucial role in ensuring that his new team secured safety with matches to spare.  A nomadic few years now seem to be at an end for Puncheon and Crystal Palace appears to be the stable environment he has needed in order to showcase his true ability.

 

Romelu Lukaku – Everton

After the season that Lukaku has had on loan at Everton, José Mourinho is perhaps regretting making such a rash decision about the young striker’s future following the UEFA Super Cup final.  He missed the decisive penalty in the shoot-out which saw Chelsea lose to Bayern Munich and from that point on Mourinho seemed intent on showing that the Belgium international would not be part of his plans.  After 15 goals in 31 league games (adding to 17 on loan at West Brom last season) the decision seems even stranger, especially given the poor performance of the strikers the Portuguese manager chose to keep at Stamford Bridge.  At Goodison Park Lukaku became Everton’s focal point and finisher; when the players behind him created a chance, Lukaku was there to finish it.  But that isn’t the extent of his contribution.  His hold-up play helped Everton retain possession whilst his work-rate up front allowed Martinez’ side to implement an impressive pressing game which brought them to within a few points of a Champions League berth.  With the injury to Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke, Lukaku looks to be the undisputed first choice to lead Belgium’s line at the World Cup.  Needless to say that had he remained at Chelsea this would be much less of a certainty. Another successful season at the top level also puts him in the shop window for a big summer move should Mourinho continue to show a lack of faith in his obvious talent.

 

Fernandinho – Manchester City

By modern football standards, £34 million is not a huge transfer fee.  In fact, since Liverpool paid £35 million for Andy Carroll it seems they have spiralled out of control, culminating in the £85 paid by Real Madrid for Gareth Bale.  Nevertheless, there was general surprise when Manchester City spent such a large amount on holding midfielder Fernandinho last summer. After all, isn’t it just the headline makers who have traditionally commanded such sums of money? As City’s players lifted the Premier League trophy on May 11, there were few left questioning the decision.  The partnership that the Brazilian formed with Yaya Touré was pivotal to the success of their side this season and his discipline and work rate allowed Touré to take the headlines with his goal scoring exploits.  Without Fernandinho City’s creative players wouldn’t have had such licence to express themselves and lay on the sorts of chances which saw them score over 100 Premier League goals.  He provided constant support to his defence and was always there to break-up opposition counter attacks when it looked like his side might be exposed.  He even chipped in with 5 goals of his own. Despite having just 6 caps for Brazil, the form he has shown playing in a top European league for the first time this season has earned him a place in the squad for the World Cup and so for him it was undoubtedly a great decision.

 

SPECIAL MENTION: Tony Pulis – Crystal Palace

A list of the most important signings of the Premier League season just wouldn’t be complete without mention of Tony Pulis. What he accomplished after taking over at Crystal Palace at the end of November was nothing short of a miracle!  When he stepped through the door the club were adrift at the bottom of the league with just 7 points and had gone without a win in 8 games. Six months and 38 points later they finished in an astonishing 11^th place, just 4 points away from a top-half Premier League finish in their first season back in the top flight. For this achievement he was rightly awarded with the Premier League manager of the year award as well as the plaudits of pundits and opposition fans alike. He showed his ability as a motivator by getting the likes of Marouane Chamakh and Yannick Bolasie to perform well beyond expectations and displayed his transfer nous by bringing in players like Scott Dann and Joe Ledley in the January transfer window to shore up his side. When Pulis agreed to take the job many questioned his decision, believing he was risking his record of never being relegated as a manager. That record is still intact and all that’s left for him now is to walk on water. My signing of the season.

 

  

The grass isn’t always greener…

Whilst the 10 people already mentioned made a real impact on the season of their respective sides, some singings really disappointed.  Here are my five worst signings of the 2013/2014 season.

Ricky Van Wolfswinkel (Norwich): Dutch striker Van Wolfswinkel arrived with some pedigree having scored a hatful of goals in both Holland and Portugal and his goal on the opening day of the season suggested this form would continue.  That was his one and only goal of the season however and at £10 million that simply wasn’t good enough. He was almost anonymous as Norwich were relegated and his awful season means he will watch this summer’s World Cup at home having missed out on a place in the Holland squad.

Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United): Fellaini followed manager David Moyes to United from Everton as a £27.5 million panic buy after the club had failed to sign any of their main transfer targets.  As a results, he now has on his CV that he was part of the Manchester United team which missed out on Europe for the first time in 26 years. In his defence, Fellaini was dropped into a side not suited to his style of play whilst injury also blighted his season.  Nevertheless when a player arrives for such a large fee, fans rightly expect considerably more than no goals in just 16 league appearances. 

Roberto Soldado (Tottenham Hotspur): The fact that Soldado scored just two goals from open play this season doesn’t tell the whole story. Goals are the minimum expectation for a £26 million striker but it was the Spaniard’s lack of fight which was most disappointing this season.  At times he seemed completely disinterested and his low work-rate up front made him a passenger in many matches. Despite an excellent scoring record in Spain, Soldado has never looked comfortable in the Premier League and he lacks the physicality needed to really compete.  Missing out on the World Cup is just salt in the wound.

Erik Lamela (Tottenham Hotspur): Having arrived at Tottenham for £30 million as a replacement for Gareth Bale, much was expected of the young Argentine winger. In the end he only started 3 league games for Spurs and was last seen on the pitch on December 29 after which his season was supposedly curtailed by injury. It seems clear however that Tim Sherwood was not Lamela’s biggest fan and he will surely be hoping whoever replaces the former England international will be much more favourable to his cause. He too missed out on selection for the World Cup due to his form.

Kostas Mitroglou (Fulham): Felix Magath turned to Greek striker Mitroglou to save Fulham’s season when he spent £12 million on him at the end of January.  Rather than firing the goals that led Fulham to safety, he was completely anonymous as they fell down into the Championship.  Just one league start in 4 months also puts under the spotlight Magath’s logic when he decided to spend so much money on an injured striker. One thing is for certain, Mitroglou will not be keen on playing Championship football next season having consistently starred in the Champions League for Olympiacos.